Why Putin Won't Be Invading Ukraine
Are we trembling on the verge of war? Is President Putin, his army arrayed around the borders of Ukraine, about to invade? The West seems to think so. Though the diplomacy continues, the embassies are being emptied, and foreign nationals urged to leave the country. It all seems very ominous, and despite the best efforts of European leaders to find a compromise, we are being told there is a "whiff of Munich in the air." Now Vladimir Putin may not be a very nice man. The regime he presides over may be authoritarian and brutal. But he is not stupid, and he must be very well aware that invading Ukraine would not be a smart move. Though the superior firepower of the Russian army would undoubtedly allow him to take Kiev within days, his troubles would only just be starting. Even aside from the sanctions that the West would impose (limited in scope and effect though they would inevitably be), Russia would be drawn into a long and bloody guerrilla war with no end in sight, cement its...